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With or without you: Should Southgate drop Foden and does Ronaldo deserve his place?

With or without you: Should Southgate drop Foden and does Ronaldo deserve his place?

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The knockout stage of Euro 2024 is here, and some of the coaches have some big selection decisions to ponder, but what does the data say?

With the group stages behind us, Euro 2024 now enters the business end of the tournament, when there's no more margin for error.

The favourites are all through in the main, with Croatia the biggest name to drop out in the group stage.

There are some surprise packages that have made the last 16 too, though: tournament debutants Georgia stunned Portugal to reach this stage, while Austria finished above France and the Netherlands to top Group D.

But as the tournament goes on, there are some serious questions being asked of the respective coaches when it comes to team selections, while other players nurse knocks ahead of the knockouts.

And here, using Opta data, we take a look at some of those selection dilemmas.

 

Should Southgate drop Foden and can Shaw stay fit?

Phil Foden came into Euro 2024 on the back of a magnificent season for Manchester City. He was named the Premier League Player of the Year, scoring 19 goals in 35 top-flight appearances in 2023-24.

Yet playing out on the left side of England's attack, with Jude Bellingham deployed centrally, Foden has failed to replicate that form for the Three Lions.

Anthony Gordon directly contributed to 21 Premier League goals for Newcastle United (11 goals, 10 assists), and appears able to offer the kind of directness that seems to be missing from England's attack.

Gordon would seemingly replace Foden if he were to start, so what is England's recent record at major tournaments without the City star?

Foden has featured in 10 games at the World Cup and Euros for England, who have won six of those games, drawing three and losing one. They score 1.8 goals per game with him in the team compared to 1.6 in the five tournament matches in which he has not featured.

Defensively, England do seem a little more solid when Foden does not feature, with their goals conceded per game dropping from 0.6 with him in, to 0.2 without the 24-year-old.

Behind Foden, though, the left-back position is an issue. Luke Shaw has not played for club or country since February, but Kieran Trippier has failed to offer the same attacking output or balance while deputising, and could be an injury doubt ahead of England's clash with Slovakia.

The sense of Southgate in taking an unfit Shaw can certainly be questioned, though when factoring in major tournaments only, you can understand why.

England have a 58.3% win percentage (7/12) when Shaw is in the team compared to a 35.3% (6/17) success rate when he is not, while conceding double the amount of goals per 90 without Shaw (1.0 to 0.5).

Does Ronaldo deserve Martinez's backing?

Cristiano Ronaldo is the record appearance maker (28) and goalscorer (14) at the Euros, but at 39, should he be spearheading Portugal's attack?

Ronaldo failed to score from 12 shots in the group stage, as for the first time at a major tournament, he did not manage to hit the back of the net in the first round.

The Al-Nassr striker scored 10 goals from qualifying, but against more resilient defences, he has found it tougher, and against Georgia he was kept quiet, though he did spurn one Opta-defined 'big chance'.

Ronaldo's appearance against Georgia marked his 50th such match at a major tournament, a European record, with the five-time Ballon d'Or winner having only sat out two fixtures at a World Cup or Euros since 2004. Portugal have a 46% win ratio with him in their team in major competitions, but is it time to cut the cord?

France need Mbappe's magic

Kylian Mbappe recovered from a broken nose to play, while donning a mask, for France against Poland last time out, and it was his penalty that put Les Bleus ahead before Robert Lewandowski equalised from the spot.

That marked Mbappe's first goal at the Euros, while he is now just one behind Michel Platini (14) in France's all-time list of record goalscorers at major tournaments.

France recorded 2.32 xG against Poland, with Mbappe accounting for 1.31 of that. In the match that he missed, a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands, Les Bleus mustered only 1.43 xG, showing how much Mbappe was missed.

Missing out

There are some big players who definitely will not be featuring in the last 16, and that is due to the fact they are suspended after picking up two yellow cards throughout the group stage.

Italy's Riccardo Calafiori has been one of the stars of the tournament, but the Bologna defender will not play against Switzerland on Saturday.

Hosts Germany will also be without a key defender in Jonathan Tah.

This campaign has been Tah's first at a major tournament, but the Bayer Leverkusen centre-back has been impressive so far and will be a miss when Germany go up against Denmark.

Turkiye, meanwhile, will have to play Austria without Hakan Calhanoglu.

The Inter playmaker has only missed one match for his country at a major tournament, though Turkiye did win that one, but facing in-form Austria without their best player is a daunting prospect. 

With or without you: Should Southgate drop Foden and does Ronaldo deserve his place?

The knockout stage of Euro 2024 is here, and some of the coaches have some big selection decisions to ponder, but what does the data say?

With the group stages behind us, Euro 2024 now enters the business end of the tournament, when there's no more margin for error.

The favourites are all through in the main, with Croatia the biggest name to drop out in the group stage.

There are some surprise packages that have made the last 16 too, though: tournament debutants Georgia stunned Portugal to reach this stage, while Austria finished above France and the Netherlands to top Group D.

But as the tournament goes on, there are some serious questions being asked of the respective coaches when it comes to team selections, while other players nurse knocks ahead of the knockouts.

And here, using Opta data, we take a look at some of those selection dilemmas.

 

Should Southgate drop Foden and can Shaw stay fit?

Phil Foden came into Euro 2024 on the back of a magnificent season for Manchester City. He was named the Premier League Player of the Year, scoring 19 goals in 35 top-flight appearances in 2023-24.

Yet playing out on the left side of England's attack, with Jude Bellingham deployed centrally, Foden has failed to replicate that form for the Three Lions.

Anthony Gordon directly contributed to 21 Premier League goals for Newcastle United (11 goals, 10 assists), and appears able to offer the kind of directness that seems to be missing from England's attack.

Gordon would seemingly replace Foden if he were to start, so what is England's recent record at major tournaments without the City star?

Foden has featured in 10 games at the World Cup and Euros for England, who have won six of those games, drawing three and losing one. They score 1.8 goals per game with him in the team compared to 1.6 in the five tournament matches in which he has not featured.

Defensively, England do seem a little more solid when Foden does not feature, with their goals conceded per game dropping from 0.6 with him in, to 0.2 without the 24-year-old.

Behind Foden, though, the left-back position is an issue. Luke Shaw has not played for club or country since February, but Kieran Trippier has failed to offer the same attacking output or balance while deputising, and could be an injury doubt ahead of England's clash with Slovakia.

The sense of Southgate in taking an unfit Shaw can certainly be questioned, though when factoring in major tournaments only, you can understand why.

England have a 58.3% win percentage (7/12) when Shaw is in the team compared to a 35.3% (6/17) success rate when he is not, while conceding double the amount of goals per 90 without Shaw (1.0 to 0.5).

Does Ronaldo deserve Martinez's backing?

Cristiano Ronaldo is the record appearance maker (28) and goalscorer (14) at the Euros, but at 39, should he be spearheading Portugal's attack?

Ronaldo failed to score from 12 shots in the group stage, as for the first time at a major tournament, he did not manage to hit the back of the net in the first round.

The Al-Nassr striker scored 10 goals from qualifying, but against more resilient defences, he has found it tougher, and against Georgia he was kept quiet, though he did spurn one Opta-defined 'big chance'.

Ronaldo's appearance against Georgia marked his 50th such match at a major tournament, a European record, with the five-time Ballon d'Or winner having only sat out two fixtures at a World Cup or Euros since 2004. Portugal have a 46% win ratio with him in their team in major competitions, but is it time to cut the cord?

France need Mbappe's magic

Kylian Mbappe recovered from a broken nose to play, while donning a mask, for France against Poland last time out, and it was his penalty that put Les Bleus ahead before Robert Lewandowski equalised from the spot.

That marked Mbappe's first goal at the Euros, while he is now just one behind Michel Platini (14) in France's all-time list of record goalscorers at major tournaments.

France recorded 2.32 xG against Poland, with Mbappe accounting for 1.31 of that. In the match that he missed, a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands, Les Bleus mustered only 1.43 xG, showing how much Mbappe was missed.

Missing out

There are some big players who definitely will not be featuring in the last 16, and that is due to the fact they are suspended after picking up two yellow cards throughout the group stage.

Italy's Riccardo Calafiori has been one of the stars of the tournament, but the Bologna defender will not play against Switzerland on Saturday.

Hosts Germany will also be without a key defender in Jonathan Tah.

This campaign has been Tah's first at a major tournament, but the Bayer Leverkusen centre-back has been impressive so far and will be a miss when Germany go up against Denmark.

Turkiye, meanwhile, will have to play Austria without Hakan Calhanoglu.

The Inter playmaker has only missed one match for his country at a major tournament, though Turkiye did win that one, but facing in-form Austria without their best player is a daunting prospect. 

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