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The Numbers Game: Austria face Turkiye in race of Euro 2024 'dark horses'

The Numbers Game: Austria face Turkiye in race of Euro 2024 'dark horses'

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Austria were the surprise package in the group stage, taking the "dark horses" tag that has so often been reserved for Turkiye.

Perennial dark horses Turkiye meet genuine dark horses Austria in an enthralling Euro 2024 last-16 tie on Tuesday.

Austria beat the Netherlands 3-2 to seal top spot in Group D ahead of the Oranje and tournament favourites France.

Turkiye, meanwhile, bounced back from a 3-0 defeat to Portugal by beating Czechia 2-1 and sealing their progress from Group F as runners-up.

These teams have landed in the kinder half of the draw, with a quarter-final against Romania or the Netherlands up for grabs.

Here, we preview the clash in Leipzig using Opta data.

What's expected?

Let's dig straight into the Opta supercomputer's prediction. The model is forecasting an Austria win, giving Ralf Rangnick's team a 48.2% chance of victory.

Turkiye have a 24.9% chance, while there's a 26.8% chance of a draw, which would of course mean extra time or even penalties.

This will be the first meeting in a major tournament between Austria and Turkiye.

Austria have won two of the last three encounters in all competitions (L1), including an emphatic 6-1 victory in March of this year.

In competitive matches, however, Turkiye are unbeaten in their last five games against Austria (W4 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time; this is the first such meeting since a goalless draw in a Euro 2012 qualifier in September 2011.

You can certainly expect a full-throttle encounter, though.

Rangnick's side are a brilliant pressing unit. Only Germany (8.8) had a lower PPDA in the group stages than Austria (9.0), while they were second for tackles (61) behind Georgia (63) and top for fouls conceded (49).

Turkiye love to get on the front foot, too. Indeed, only Portugal (5.8) and Spain (5.4) had a higher non-penalty expected goals total than Turkiye (5.2) in the groups, while Vincenzo Montella's side were also third for high turnovers (28), behind Croatia (34) and Portugal (30).

Ralf's still got it

Rangnick's interim stint in charge of Manchester United did not go well, and some eyebrows were raised when Bayern Munich approached him earlier this summer.

Yet on the evidence of Euro 2024, Rangnick has still very much got it.

His team have been fantastic, and were worthy winners of Group D, scoring six goals across their last two fixtures in the first round, and only going down to France due to an unfortunate own goal from Maximilian Wober.

Since Rangnick's first game in charge in June 2022, only three European nations – Portugal (73%), Spain (67%) and Netherlands (64%) – have a higher win percentage than Austria (60%), who have won 15 of their 25 matches under him.

Austria have qualified for the knockout stages of a major tournament for only a fourth time, also doing so at the 1934 and 1954 World Cups and Euro 2020, losing 2-1 to Italy in the round of 16 in the latter.

So it is hardly like the pressure is on, but given their displays so far, there is a feeling they can really go deep in this tournament.

The kids are alright

Turkiye were well fancied at Euro 2020, but ultimately flopped as they crashed out in the first round.

This is just the third time they have reached the Euros knockouts, after 2000 and 2008, reaching the semi-finals at the latter tournament, which, of course, was co-hosted by Austria. However, they have yet to win a knockout tie in 120 minutes in the competition. They progressed past Croatia in the quarters on penalties 16 years ago, before losing 3-2 to Germany in the last four.

But this new generation holds no fear.

Only Ukraine (25 years, 281 days) had a younger average age of their starting XI in the group stages than Turkiye (26y 170d).

In fact, should Kenan Yildiz (19y 59d on the day of the game) and Arda Guler (19y 128d on the day of the game) start, it will be just the second time a nation has started two teenagers in a knockout stage game at the Euros, after Hungary against Denmark in 1964 (Ferenc Bene and Zoltan Varga).

Guler may well be crucial, especially when considering that playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu will miss this match through suspension. 

Real Madrid youngster Guler is already his country's bright new hope, but he could make himself a hero here.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Austria - Christoph Baumgartner

Baumgartner has been directly involved in nine goals in his last eight appearances for Austria (six goals, three assists). 

He scored and assisted in the group stage, becoming the first Austrian player to do so in a single European Championship tournament, and first at a major tournament since Gerhard Rodax at the 1990 World Cup.

Baumgartner will be back playing on home turf in this match, too. He plies his trade for RB Leipzig.

Turkiye - Ferdi Kadioglu

Full-back Kadioglu created more chances from open play than any other player in the group stages (10), while only Mykola Matviienko (25) and Jeremy Doku (23) recorded more progressive carries of 10 metres or more (22).

He is certainly a player Austria need to keep a close eye on.

The Numbers Game: Austria face Turkiye in race of Euro 2024 'dark horses'

Austria were the surprise package in the group stage, taking the "dark horses" tag that has so often been reserved for Turkiye.

Perennial dark horses Turkiye meet genuine dark horses Austria in an enthralling Euro 2024 last-16 tie on Tuesday.

Austria beat the Netherlands 3-2 to seal top spot in Group D ahead of the Oranje and tournament favourites France.

Turkiye, meanwhile, bounced back from a 3-0 defeat to Portugal by beating Czechia 2-1 and sealing their progress from Group F as runners-up.

These teams have landed in the kinder half of the draw, with a quarter-final against Romania or the Netherlands up for grabs.

Here, we preview the clash in Leipzig using Opta data.

What's expected?

Let's dig straight into the Opta supercomputer's prediction. The model is forecasting an Austria win, giving Ralf Rangnick's team a 48.2% chance of victory.

Turkiye have a 24.9% chance, while there's a 26.8% chance of a draw, which would of course mean extra time or even penalties.

This will be the first meeting in a major tournament between Austria and Turkiye.

Austria have won two of the last three encounters in all competitions (L1), including an emphatic 6-1 victory in March of this year.

In competitive matches, however, Turkiye are unbeaten in their last five games against Austria (W4 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time; this is the first such meeting since a goalless draw in a Euro 2012 qualifier in September 2011.

You can certainly expect a full-throttle encounter, though.

Rangnick's side are a brilliant pressing unit. Only Germany (8.8) had a lower PPDA in the group stages than Austria (9.0), while they were second for tackles (61) behind Georgia (63) and top for fouls conceded (49).

Turkiye love to get on the front foot, too. Indeed, only Portugal (5.8) and Spain (5.4) had a higher non-penalty expected goals total than Turkiye (5.2) in the groups, while Vincenzo Montella's side were also third for high turnovers (28), behind Croatia (34) and Portugal (30).

Ralf's still got it

Rangnick's interim stint in charge of Manchester United did not go well, and some eyebrows were raised when Bayern Munich approached him earlier this summer.

Yet on the evidence of Euro 2024, Rangnick has still very much got it.

His team have been fantastic, and were worthy winners of Group D, scoring six goals across their last two fixtures in the first round, and only going down to France due to an unfortunate own goal from Maximilian Wober.

Since Rangnick's first game in charge in June 2022, only three European nations – Portugal (73%), Spain (67%) and Netherlands (64%) – have a higher win percentage than Austria (60%), who have won 15 of their 25 matches under him.

Austria have qualified for the knockout stages of a major tournament for only a fourth time, also doing so at the 1934 and 1954 World Cups and Euro 2020, losing 2-1 to Italy in the round of 16 in the latter.

So it is hardly like the pressure is on, but given their displays so far, there is a feeling they can really go deep in this tournament.

The kids are alright

Turkiye were well fancied at Euro 2020, but ultimately flopped as they crashed out in the first round.

This is just the third time they have reached the Euros knockouts, after 2000 and 2008, reaching the semi-finals at the latter tournament, which, of course, was co-hosted by Austria. However, they have yet to win a knockout tie in 120 minutes in the competition. They progressed past Croatia in the quarters on penalties 16 years ago, before losing 3-2 to Germany in the last four.

But this new generation holds no fear.

Only Ukraine (25 years, 281 days) had a younger average age of their starting XI in the group stages than Turkiye (26y 170d).

In fact, should Kenan Yildiz (19y 59d on the day of the game) and Arda Guler (19y 128d on the day of the game) start, it will be just the second time a nation has started two teenagers in a knockout stage game at the Euros, after Hungary against Denmark in 1964 (Ferenc Bene and Zoltan Varga).

Guler may well be crucial, especially when considering that playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu will miss this match through suspension. 

Real Madrid youngster Guler is already his country's bright new hope, but he could make himself a hero here.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Austria - Christoph Baumgartner

Baumgartner has been directly involved in nine goals in his last eight appearances for Austria (six goals, three assists). 

He scored and assisted in the group stage, becoming the first Austrian player to do so in a single European Championship tournament, and first at a major tournament since Gerhard Rodax at the 1990 World Cup.

Baumgartner will be back playing on home turf in this match, too. He plies his trade for RB Leipzig.

Turkiye - Ferdi Kadioglu

Full-back Kadioglu created more chances from open play than any other player in the group stages (10), while only Mykola Matviienko (25) and Jeremy Doku (23) recorded more progressive carries of 10 metres or more (22).

He is certainly a player Austria need to keep a close eye on.

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